Pandemic Freak Waves -
as causally consecutive processes
Ewald Gerth
2019-2020-2021-2022 – Epidemics and Pandemics as Waves
A viral disease that had appeared as an epidemic in a limited area of China in 2019 grew into a pandemic in 2020 and spread across the world as waves in space and time.
In the areas affected by the pandemic, there was initially a sharp increase in the number of infections. The subsequent reaction of the populations and their governments with the introduction and statutory regulation of protective measures led to a decline in the infection, but also brought with it far-reaching social and economic problems, so that there was strong resistance from the population to the measures. With reference to the subsidence of the infection, the protective measures were then largely suspended. As a result, the infection increased again. The process was repeated – once, twice, three times, four times, etc.
These processes of rising and falling of the infection over time are called the “waves” of the pandemic.
The beginning of the infection usually takes place unnoticed and with an unknown origin area – often only at one point in the world. The increase in the number of infections with a course that cannot yet be overlooked, alarms the population, the state, the administration, and the health system. Without knowledge of the special situation and functional relationships, without experience and only supported by comparable historical spread of epidemics, protective and counter measures are decided and made under law. Some of it is right and effective, some is not.
Protective measures against epidemics/pandemics protect and damage at the same time. Nevertheless, knowledge-based prevention, learning by doing, and applying effective measures are necessary.
The unmistakable increase in infection in connection with the social and economic effects is perceived by the affected population as a threatening disaster – indeed, as a “freak” or “rogue”.
The chronological sequence of a pandemic is a process with concatenation of cause and effect.
The preconditions of processes are determined by a static network of spatial, structural, and functional connections with the potential reserves of matter and energy. The processes are mostly triggered by external influences and move dynamically on the specified paths. The course of the process creates new states, structures, and material compositions, which again form the basis for subsequent processes. Static and dynamic conditions can exist at the same time and influence each other.
Processes are characterized by probabilities for all quantities involved, which determine the beginning, the course, the composition, and the effect.
The probability of reactions in processes is a statistical mean value from the set of individual reactions in a defined environment. This also applies to the magnitude concentration as an amount of substance in a room. The probability gives the overall evaluation of the process and the prognosis for the further course.
The interdependent processes in a causal chain are arranged in a hierarchy.
Every actually considered process has an environment of superordinated, subordinated, parallel, preceding, and succeeding processes, which are more or less functionally interconnected.
There is a main process with the succession of states whose transitions are controlled by super-processes, sub-processes, and side (parallel) processes.
In the case of an epidemic/pandemic, the sequence of the health states of a group of people is the the main process, which is determined by the social circumstances as the super-process. The transitions between the states form sub-processes. The temporally defined effects on the main process are side processes.
The preceding processes determine the precondition and the succeeding processes do the aftermath of the actual process.
The main process is the overall directing one. Therefore, the consideration of the pandemic process is restricted to the main functional relations with the transition between the consecutive health states. The results of the “transmitters” appear in the transition magnitudes.
Limitation: Although the main reaction system can be expanded, other processes such as virological, medical, therapeutic, medicamental, – but also processes of transmission, spreading, containment, etc. ... have to be investigated seperately. They are then treated as main processes with their own functional environment.
Form of expression: In the interest of general comprehensibility, some terms have been reworded in the presentation of the subject, while limiting the special terminology.
Author's note on state of knowledge and data usage:
The present presentation of the occurrence, spread and impact of pandemic processes as well as the development of pandemic waves up to the emergence of freak waves is exclusively based on currently (in 2021) known general knowledge and is not derived from results of scientific research, measurement, and statistics.
The analysis of the pandemic is founded on the theory of causally consecutive processes and related to the functional mechanism of the main process.
The main process of the epidemic/pandemic consists of the following states:
Healthy - infected - sick - treated - convalescent/dying - recovered/deceased.
The transitions from stage to stage are the following probability variables from sub- and side processes:
Infection - disease - therapy - healing/dying.
The occurence of the process is triggered in the group of healthy people by an initial infection.
The “exponential increase” in the number of infections – the “First Wave”:
When people who are still healthy come together with those who are already infected, centers of reproduction arise of the viruses in the bodies of the newly infected that are in transmission from host to host, lead to an increase according to an exponential function. But this increase does not work infinite, since the number of the healthy is finally exhausted and with it the number of the infected cannot increase further. A S-shaped curve of the type of saturation results. The next stage in the main process is the condition of the disease. The number of infected people in the group decreases. The curve passes through a maximum and slopes again – like a wave: the “First Wave” of the pandemic.
The emergence of the “Second Wave”:
If the increase in the infection rate is reduced or stopped (e.g. by protective measures), so the number of infected people passes through a maximum and gradually decreases until it disappears, but after the infection process has resumed (after the protective measures have ended) rise again. The crowd of infected people goes through a “wave trough” and rises to the "Second Wave".
After the second wave, a health state like after the first wave arises again. The process continues with the changing conditions of virus transmission, so that a third, fourth, ... etc. wave can follow.
There are many causes for the increase of the number of infections in the Second Wave – as shown below.
Epidemic/Pandemic – Waves/Oscillations:
The wavelike spread of the epidemic/pandemic – is it one thing as a “wave” or an “oscillation” ? –
In relation to the course of time, this type of wave is an oscillation that could also be called “time wave”.
Physically correct is: Oscillations in time are transmitted through a connecting medium as waves in time and space.
We join the commonplace (albeit physically incorrect) language usage and use both terms synonymously.
One observes that behavior of an oscillation of a special kind – not a sinusoidal oscillation like a swing but an impact oscillation like a dropped ball or a trampoline. The amplitude and duration of the oscillation decrease due to damping and loss of substance. However, adding energy/force/substance again in certain phases of the oscillation, then a permanent oscillation with even an increasing tendency arises.
On the time axis, the oscillations appear as waves.
The emergence of pandemic waves by feedback:
The reason for the occurrence of an oscillation in the infection process of the affected group of people is the feedback in a closed loop by the transmission as a sub-process within the causal sequence of the main process. An oscillation is also a process in the course of time – that is, a process. Generally, feedback occurs in a circle through the stations: from the source to the sensor, then to the amplifier and back to the source.
The oscillation takes place in two mutually offset phases. In the first phase, the perception of the infection gives cause for the use of protective measures. In the second phase, the protective measures that have already been applied lead to negative consequences for the social relationships in society and provoke opposition. The protective measures are largely ignored. After the disease has subsided, the infection rate increases again.
The process repeats and becomes periodic. After each period there follows a new wave.
The successive waves are dependent on the respective excitation conditions and are not uniform. Left to its own, the excitation is followed by a reduction in the oscillation duration and height. External stimuli can drive the oscillation mechanism at will at any time.
The main epidemic-pandemic process - as an oscillation system:
The oscillation in the infection process of the epidemic/pandemic is created via a feedback loop, going through the stages of the health conditions healthy, infected, sick, treated, convalescing/dying, recovered/deceased. At first glance, such a connection seems difficult to understand.
There are countless possibilities for oscillations to occur as a result of feedback – such as with an (overdriven) acoustic amplifier system, in which there correspond: the microphone – to the perception of the population, the amplifier – to the influence on the transition variables, and the loudspeaker – to the protective measures. The acoustic feedback produces a howling sound.
The pandemic oscillation system is controlled by many internal and external influences, so that the height and duration of the oscillations/waves are different. Therefore, epidemic/pandemic oscillations do not have stable frequencies specified by parameters, which would enable a reliable prediction as a prognosis. However, the general laws of oscillation theory apply. Even without feedback from the perception and reaction of the infected, the infection process runs as an oscillating system. An excitation impulse triggers a single oscillation/wave, the maximum of which follows in the phase. A train of pulses can build up a periodic series of permanent waves.
The pandemic oscillation system – causes and influences:
An oscillation always takes place in an exchange of potential and dynamics.
It is useful for understanding to consider the known processes on a pendulum and/or a swing. The start of the oscillation can be from the potential (deflection from the rest position) or starting from the dynamics (impetus in the rest position). In order to stop the oscillation of the pendulum you would have to hold it in the deflection or stop at its lowest point. Stopping in the lowest position of a swing shows that friction occurs when it is dragged by the feet on the ground. Here the kinetic energy of the movement is removed from the oscillation system. The oscillation – the rocking – is set in motion again by bumping in the deepest position, i.e. by supplying kinetic energy.
The analog transmission from these known oscillation systems to pandemic oscillations requires some generous considerations – so the question: What is the potential and what is the dynamic in the pandemic? –
It is simply defined:
1. The pandemic potential is the amount of still healthy people in a group available for infection.
2. The pandemic dynamic is the transition between the health states of the people as well as the addition of healthy and/or infected people to the group of people affected by the infection.
The start of the epidemic/pandemic usually takes place from the “standstill”, when infected (at least one) join the group of the still healthy and spread the infection with multiplication of the virus from host to host. This is a dynamic process! – The increase in infection is prevented by protective measures (distance, mask, ...) and braked but not stopped, so that after the wave-like maximum the “idle state” in the wave trough is reached again. But that is not the end of the infection process as long as the dynamics still works. Each new stimulation leads to a renewed increase and to another oscillation/wave. The area of the wave trough is even particularly sensitive to a new rise.
The opinion that with the subsidence of the infection this is over and you can remove protective measures is a common misjudgment. After the trough the dynamic wave can revive again and slosh up to a wave crest! –
When the impressed first wave begins to oscillate, this arouses for the infection process public perception so that protective measures are put in place. These are exposed to the resistance of part of the population.
In this way, impressed oscillations can be fed back and stimulate, amplify and sustain the continuous oscillation.
The Second Wave of the Epidemic/Pandemic will be periodic.
The emergence of pandemic waves by impressed periodic oscillations:
The magnitudes for the transition from the level of the healthy to the level of the sick are determined by independent secondary processes. The orbital motion of the earth around the sun leads to the climatic changes of the seasons. The rotation of the earth around its axis causes the times of day. Other periods – like the monthly and weekly cycles – are admittedly derived from the natural phases of the moon, but were arbitrarily set for the establishment of regularity.
The periodic ups and downs of solar radiation on certain areas of the earth lead to oscillation changes in brightness, temperature, dryness/humidity and therefore for the vegetation as well as the living conditions of humans and animals. The transmission conditions for viruses change in the same rhythm from person to person. In summer the transmission is lower than in autumn, as the virus transport droplets are irradiated by the sun and dry out. Agglomerations of humans mainly take place outdoors and are therefore less infectious than in the period from autumn to spring.
There is a daily cycle of the transfer conditions, but it is submerged into effect and evidence mostly in the scatter.
In the weekly cycle, people's lifestyle, professional and cultural behavior play a role. In addition, there is the uncertainty of the evidence of the incidences, since not all cases are reported and recorded by the statistics.
Synchronization and resonance of pandemic oscillations:
The feedback system of the pandemic infection process is capable of oscillating.
Compared to the oscillations of a swing, pushes occur repeatedly, as a result of which the oscillation “rocks” when the swing seat is regularly pushed in the lower passage. The shocks are a periodic pulse sequence equal to an impressed oscillation, which is synchronized with the natural oscillation of the oscillation system.
Only when the period of oscillation of the imposed oscillation roughly coincides with the natural oscillation of the oscillation system, this does oscillate with it. – There will be resonance. In the case of an epidemic/pandemic, the oscillation system is synchronized from the outset and adjusted to resonance, since the reactions of the population/health care/administration immediately follow all oscillations/waves that arise as a result of the infection. Only in the case of impressed external waves asynchrony can result from different oscillation periods. However, the feedback mechanism has a tendency to restore synchronicity. The successive waves have different maximum values. They can soar to monster waves.
The “pandemic hot seasons” spring and autumn:
By working together
1. the feedback oscillation system with
2. the imprinted seasonal oscillations and
3. synchronization
peak levels of infection occur in spring and autumn.
Effect of aperiodic time functions:
The main process of transitions from the states healthy/infected/sick/treated/recovered-deceased can be influenced by any external time functions. These can originate from superordinate and side processes or be arbitrary – e.g. long-term climate changes but also administrative measures, which are used to prevent and dampen the occurrence of infection (distance, mask, cleaning, quarantine, travel ban, vaccination, ...).
Pandemic “shock waves”:
On the impressed time functions of the effect on the transition variables and components in the main process above all, what counts are sudden changes in the form of needle and jump impulses, which are often random, sporadic and unpredictable – like lightning strikes. They come from outside, are usually independent and cannot be assigned to any traceable processes. In the main process, such abrupt ones initiate changes rise and waves of infection – namely the shock waves.
Areas of extremely high infection intensity - Hotspots:
Concentrations of people in a small space provide favorable conditions for the spread after an initial infection of infectious pathogens. The effect is intensified by small distances between people and inadequate protective measures – sometimes through conscious demonstration of their rejection. In many cases the spatial concentration of groups of people is due to the situation (hospital, retirement home, ...), education (school, university, ...), professional life (department stores, production facilities, ...), culture (theatre, concert, church, ...), sports (competitions with major events, ...), travel (train, bus, plane, cruise ship, ...). There are also deliberately brought about agglomerations: folk festivals, (Christmas market, dance events, ...) – last but not least, demonstrations of all kinds. –
Such agglomerations are usually arbitrarily distributed but locally limited concentration cores that manifest themselves as preconditions from superprocesses that are already taking place (due to social, family, cultural, ... relationships) result.
After the initial infection by sick newcomers, foci of infection – so-called "hotspots" – develop in the immediate vicinity. As the epidemic progresses, the incidence of infection increases to the First Wave, which, however, is soon slowed down and suppressed by reacting with countermeasures. A hotspot is a potential oscillation system. It usually stays with a single wave. Then the hotspot will be deleted. However, its legacies of pathogens can spread into the environment. –
Hotspots occur irregularly in space and time. They flare up unexpectedly quickly, worries for surprises and catastrophes – and disappear again. For short periods of time, people are grouped together, which break up again and form larger groups. In the larger units, groups also behave like individuals. In any case, the laws of oscillations and waves apply. Only when people come together extremely narrowly, the First Wave swings up in a hotspot to a local Monster Wave.
Local and geographic pandemic waves:
The “spread of the pandemic” is initially understood to mean the extensive progression of a wave like on water surface – i.e. as a local wave. Starting from one place of origin, the pandemic continues to spread to other places – cities, countries, continents. The transit sites are the intermediate health states where the viruses multiply and strengthen, conquerring other places and areas in a consistent sequence of times. These are all the characteristics of consecutive processes.
However, it is not clear from the locally progressing process what happens to the people.
If you stick to the definition of the sequence of states from healthy to recovered-deceased as the main process, so the spatial spread of the pandemic is a sub-process which acts on the transition magnitudes of the main process.
It is insignificant what occur between the people exposed to the infection over different distances of a few centimeters up to half a circumference of the earth. All of this is contained in the function of the probability of virus transmission from person to person, which follows from the normal scattering law of Gauss. What is far away does not come into effect. The main process applies to certain closed groups of people. The influx and agglomeration of people then changes the shape of the probability function.
Transport, multiplication and global spread of the infection:
Closed groups of people can also come together to form more highly organized units that encompass regional areas, countries and continents. Cross-border infection usually occurs as the result of the transport of the virus by a few individuals.
Compare this with a forest fire, in which sparks from a site of fire ignite further fires across the precautionary lane.
In the pandemic, the “sparks that fuel an infection” are visitors, travelers, tourists, commuters, etc. who cross existing borders or such ones established for protection and bring the contagious disease with them.
As with the emergence of epidemics in closed groups of people, the infection spreads – as a pandemic – in larger areas. Instead of the reaction of the affected population by protective measures (distance, mask, ...), the reaction of the peoples and states with administrative measures (border closure, blocking, entry ban, control, quarantine, ...) occurs.
This in turn leads to a decrease in the incidence of infection and thus to the reaction of relaxation and relief with the withdrawal of the measures imposed to restrict travel. The result is a feedback process that causes excited oscillation. A time wave arises, but it can have a different frequency than that of a closed group of people. In several countries with different social, cultural and climatic conditions, oscillations of different frequencies sometimes take place at the same time. The world swings on many waves.
At the same time, the oscillations of the seasons and the sporadic impulses have an effect with changes in the transition magnitudes – e.g. due to the appearance of new mutations in viruses.
The transport of the infection also takes place in areas untouched by the pandemic, where the epidemic then occurs for the first time and mostly spreads unprepared and unprotected. The infection grows unchecked to the first wave – perhaps as a “freak wave”. New centers of reproduction are formed, which can pose a threat to the rest of the environment.
Outsourcing, reinforcement, return transport, and international networking of the epidemic/pandemic:
The transport of the epidemic carriers to other areas (cities, countries, continents) will spark new epidemics there, which develop a life of their own, strengthen, and expand. The pandemic may have already been subsided in the country of origin – transported by travelers, tourists, ... newly developed disease carriers in the other area can be transported back again and relive the epidemic/pandemic. It appears as if a wave caused elsewhere is flowing back again. A back and forth of epidemic/pandemic waves between two locations is also conceivable – like the balls at a tennis game.
The exchange of infection does not only happen between two locations. All areas of the world are more or less with each other closely networked by transport connections. Even if the infectious disease had already disappeared in most of the world – ! It has survived somewhere, can unexpectedly break out again as an epidemic and take on the form of pandemic waves – spreading across the world.
The course of epidemics/pandemics differs in the individual countries and is perceived differently by the population.
Pandemic migration due to global climate change, economic crises and world political conflicts:
Unfavorable changes in living conditions in different areas of the world cause parts of the population to abandon their ancestral leaving settlement areas and emigrating to other countries – with the expectation of finding better conditions there and settling down. Migration flows are developing – regardless of all problems, resistance and dangers. There are also disasters and conflicts that hit as migration shockwaves the immigration area at random times, throwing it out of order. Most of them are refugees from climatic, economic and war emergency areas. For humanitarian reasons, one must see these threatened and suffering receiving people in the host countries. The immigration of groups of people from other countries is sometimes only temporary. With the improvement of the situation in the home country, a return is also possible, but cannot be planned in advance.
The migration is the result of parallel processes that have preceded elsewhere, which, as secondary processes, affect the transition variables of the main process in the pandemic area under consideration. The influx of people of different ages and social class results in the host population to organizational and support problems. The infection process is changed by filling up the health stages in the main process as well as by introduced infectious agents – perhaps even with new mutations. Control and protective measures cannot be applied or even enforced. The unpredictable sporadic impacts of migration waves break into and drive the regular course of pandemic waves.
Monster Events in people's lives summon Monster Waves of flight, disease spread and disruption to their community.
The fight against the pandemic is an international task!
Disposition for and immunization against infections:
The transmission of an infection from person to person or from area to area presupposes the dispatch and the receipt of the transported pathogens beforehand.
Compared to a forest fire, the dispatch is given by special situations (lightning, flying sparks, arson, ...), but the reception done by the local conditions and circumstances – especially by the weather (drought, humidity, season, climate ...). There is a disposition for the fire to ignite and to spread. If a controlled counterfire is burned down, the area remaining after that is “immune” to further fires.
An “immunity” (in the sense of insensitivity) can also be brought about by precautionary measures – for example by creating fire protection aisles and/or humidifying.
In the case of an epidemic/pandemic, the disposition for the “nesting” of the disease carriers is determined by the condition of the people affected (health, culture, habits, ...) – individually and in whole areas. Immunity is achieved by survival of the disease and/or therapeutic preventive measures. Above all, this includes vaccinating of a large proportion of the population. Thereby the increasing and the further spread of the disease carriers is hindered. But this is not a cure-all. The vaccination may only be carried out with tested and risk-safe means, so that harmful side effects are excluded as far as possible. An unsecured, hasty legislation can result in unmistakable public health risks.
A problem that should not be neglected is the uncertain sustainability of immunity acquired through vaccination. So-called “vaccination breakthroughs” with renewed infection occur after a while increasingly often. In the main process of health states there take place coupling reactions of the infected with those who are still healthy or temporarily recovered. Even after mass vaccination infections have decreased, there is still no certainty. With feedback and the excitation of an oscillation, the wave comes up again.
Disposition and immunization can set in at any time, thus determining beginning and course of a wave.
The mutation of pathogens:
The transitions between health states healthy/infected/sick/treated/recovered-deceased are influenced in the various stages by changes in pathogens, which work as sub-processes. Mutations result in further variants of the pathogens with greater or lesser spread dynamics of the infection, with an increased or reduced risk of infection, with a more severe or milder course of the disease, with healing or death. –
The emergence of a new variant of viruses does not necessarily mean the threat of an imminent flood by a monster wave of infection that must be prepared for with all means of protection. Relaxation and relief may also occur. Timely detection of the properties of such mutations and the use of special countermeasures is important.
Reference should be made to historical epidemics/pandemics – for example: After the appearance of smallpox and its research (Eward Jenner, 1776) was used to combat it by vaccination with a relatively harmless variant, which caused only a mild course of the disease but provided immunity.
Under the given conditions, mutants with a milder course of the disease the more severe type can be ousted. The pandemic wave is “ebbing away” and may turn into an endemic. But that cannot be forced. Epidemics/pandemics are “plagues of force majeure”.
The wave sequences of the main process of the epidemic/pandemic:
The sequence of transitions in health states in the causal chain of the main process is comparable to a cascade, i.e. with a waterfall pouring over several levels: First, the upper basin is filled with water, which flows out and gradually fills the second basin. The contents of the second basin then overflows into the third basin – and so on The filling appears later in each of the downstream basins – with a corresponding phase delay.
In the case of the epidemic/pandemic, the incidence of infection in the first stage of those who are still healthy is reduced by the transition to the infected group. The infection wave created in this way in the second stage transfers its contents to the third stage of the sick. Here, the number of infected people decreases again after passing through a maximum, while the number of sick people continues to increase, but then also with the transition to the fourth stage of treated decreases again. The maximum of the infected follows the maximum of the sick – with a phase delay. In same Likewise, the process continues with the next transition from the treated to the recovered or dying. Always the extreme values of the rates of infected, ill, treated, convalescing/dying follow in the phase. The causally linked health stages pass through filling and emptying one after the other – like a wave. Only in the final levels of the recovered and the deceased are the quantities accumulated.
The subordination of the phases in the transitions in the process flow explains the phenomenon observed at epidemic/pandemic that the rates of diseased, treated and recovered as well as the amounts of recovered and of the deceased still rise – even to monster waves – when the quantities preceding in the overall process have long decreased.
Time effect on the course of the process and "commutativity" of process sections:
Impulse-like or longer-lasting influences can act on the running main process at any time, that change the course of the process and determine the result with the moment they occur.
The course of an illness is given as an example: Cancer! – Early diagnosis and application of chemotherapy are critical to healing and survival. Later - it may be too late. -
The beginning of a change in the course of the process forms a turning point, which divides the entire process into two separate sections – a pre-process and a post-process. Different factors are at work in both process sections with different functional relations, transitional variables, and compositions. Swapping the order of the different process sections leads to unequal results. In the case of the cancer disease given as an example above, the chronological reversal of the process sections do something totally different! A relationship of non-commutativity applies, as in the case of the use of pharmaceuticals with different effects:
Disease >>> Therapy <=> Therapy >>> Disease
The non-commutativity of differently running process sections
applies in a special way to all stages of the main process. It starts with the process of infection with or without safeguards. But also infection and disease, disease and therapy, therapy and healing/dying are non-commutative processes.
Knowledge of the course of the process is essential for protection against external influences and for the application to be more effective protective measures against the epidemic/pandemic.
The consequences of the epidemic/pandemic for society, culture and economy:
The epidemic/pandemic as a causal consequence of the health of infected people is integrated in additional processes. On the one hand, the results of the main process act as sub-processes back to the beginning and generate an oscillation through feedback; on the other hand, these results produce subsequent processes with extensive autonomy. Above all, the protective measures prescribed to combat the epidemic/pandemic (the restrictions of people in freedom of movement, encounters, employment, culture, education, of supply, trade, etc.) lead to a destructuring of society. The pandemic wave initiates with the phase shift characteristic of subsequent processes a wave of social disruption.
The processes in society also lead through a number of different states and have a ranking with causal linkage. The restricted freedom of movement of people hinders their activity of shopping and supply. Many businesses, shops, restaurants, cultural institutions, etc. are no longer profitable and have to close. After the pandemic wave follows consistently – the "bankruptcy wave". – However, the consequence of the processes continues. Changes in rights, assets, possessions, real estate, etc. follow. Many processes branch out and become independent. It should not be concealed that the pandemic has also resulted in prosperous developments. Business is booming to fight the pandemic: in the pharmaceutical industry, in online retail, in the internet communication, etc. – Corporations and banks generate high returns on capital. –
The waves of social disruption are triggered by the pandemic waves that follow them. Indeed, "high tides" of the pandemic create "high waves" in society – yes, "monster waves".
The analogy of particularly high pandemic waves to the “monster waves” at sea:
Occasionally, in otherwise calm seas, unexpectedly huge peaks of waves appear on the sea – true “monsters” – to capsize and sink the ships located there. Formerly dismissed as “sea man's yarn”, the reality of this phenomenon has been confirmed by many tragic experiences and extensive satellite observations.
The German „Monster-Wellen“ are the English “freak waves” or “rogue waves”.
Although not all causes for the formation of the freak waves have been clarified, one can still look at a few referring opportunities. The sea is churned up by atmospheric phenomena (storms, cyclones, tornadoes, ...) and geological eruptions (oceanic volcanoes, seaquakes, tsunamis, ...). Man-made also come underwater explosions in addition (wars, bombs, nuclear weapons tests).
From such sources of maritime unrest, wave trains emanate as “shock waves”, which come from different directions, meeting other wave fronts and collide rising to “water mountains”. That is the “interference” of wavefronts.
When a wave front hits a rounded coastal bay and is reflected like at a concave mirror, it happens a focussing that can be dangerous to a ship in focus (Cape Horn, Cape of Good Hope).
The pandemic representation of time waves is based primarily on the interference of superimposed oscillations with different frequencies and phase-related effects on the transition magnitudes between the stages of the health conditions of the infected people as well as changes in the quantitative composition of the groups.
The “Pandemic Freak Wave”:
The pandemic as a time wave progresses in a positive time direction. So there is no opposing interference as with the sea monster wave, but overlaying oscillations of different causes and frequencies. In this way, the oscillations resulting from the feedback can be superimposed on the seasonal oscillations. This results in interference and synchronization of the various influences, oscillations and waves.
Depending on the phase position, compensation and mutual amplification of the amplitudes take place. After a stretch in a calm course, the amplitude of the sum of both oscillations can increase so much that it does exceed the expected standard – and appears oversized as a “Freak Mountain”.
The phase position
plays an important role also for other influences on the infection process.
The main points are given below:
1. After the “pandemic” spring, the withdrawal of the protective measures occurs in the summer time of the year. This favors the impression that the protective measures are no longer needed. Mass meetings and freedom of movement in community behavior are demanded and enforced. The outgoing summer, however, is a favourable time to restart the infection.
2. There will always be opportunities to manipulate the opinion and behavior of the population as well as instrumentalization from politics and business, which controlls the course of the pandemic consciously at the right time.
3. The emergence of new mutants of viruses with greater infection efficiency and spread dynamics leads to increased effectiveness of the pandemic and contributes to the freak wave.
4. The epidemic/pandemic works together with other diseases after a previous health damage and causes – in a favorable phase position – the acceleration of the health-related follow-up process of the infected.
5. It should be noted that the “other diseases” also include epidemics/pandemics with bacterial and other carriers of disease.
6. The influx of people into a group is particularly great in the summer. Visits, tourism and professional exchanges of people can hardly be prevented. The potential basis for the infection process is growing.
7. Large mass events take place throughout the year: elections, sporting events, demonstrations, ...
If these events fall in the summer phase, the larger ones follow in autumn with higher transition probabilities between the states of health with a rapid increase in infections, but which can be slowed down by protective measures and mass vaccinations.
Conclusion:
Pandemic waves occur in global distribution with different frequencies, interferring in an incalculable manner.
All of the above-mentioned wave phenomena and influences on the course of the main process can come into effect at different phases.
In the extreme case of favorable phases, they coincide and the result is the
Pandemic Freak Wave.
The pandemic is gripping mankind –
as a freak of fate with its threats and consequences –
in waves of disruption and destruction of their life and living together !
Translated by means of the GOOGLE-Translator from the German text:
„Pandemische Monster-Wellen“ – http://www.ewald-gerth.de/pandemie-wellen.htm
Last update: 2022, June 16th (16.06.2022)